Recent Comments

2 Comments

Gravatar
Kevin Said,
February 12th, 2010 @11:39 am  

I would like to know how the time frame of “6 to 12 months of Armageddon” is explained. The Great Depression lasted many years – why would this one have been so much shorter?

Gravatar
Ryan Said,
February 12th, 2010 @12:54 pm  

That time frame is speculation, Kevin. My point is that things would have been very bad, worse than they are currently, but for a shorter period of time. The Great Depression began with the Wall St. crash in 1929 (the infamous “Black Tuesday”), and lasted until about 1940. Most people credit WWII spending, and the drafting of millions of young men, as the catalyst for lifting us out of the Great Depression. But, some disagree with that: http://www.swifteconomics.com/2009/03/21/war-is-not-good-for-the-economy/

FDR’s New Deal attempted to lead us out of Depression during the 1930s, which included paying farmers to murder their livestock and burn their crops to control supply, and increase prices. Meanwhile, people were homeless and going hungry in “Hoovervilles”. Hardly an efficient use of resources.

There was also a Depression in 1920, which lasted a year and a half. Nobody seems to be aware of this one. Instead of massive government stimulus and intervention, the feds did almost nothing, other than be fiscally responsible. Says Jim Powell of the Cato Institute:

Federal spending was cut from $6.3 billion in 1920 to $5 billion in 1921 and $3.2 billion in 1922. Federal taxes fell from $6.6 billion in 1920 to $5.5 billion in 1921 and $4 billion in 1922. Harding’s policies started a trend. The low point for federal taxes was reached in 1924; for federal spending, in1925. The federal government paid off debt, which had been $24.2 billion in 1920, and it continued to decline until 1930.

With Harding’s tax and spending cuts and relatively non-interventionist economic policy, GNP rebounded to $74.1 billion in 1922. The number of unemployed fell to 2.8 million— a reported 6.7 percent of the labor force— in 1922. So, just a year and a half after Harding became president, the Roaring Twenties were underway. The unemployment rate continued to decline, reaching an extraordinary low of 1.8 percent in 1926. Since then, the unemployment rate has been lower only once in wartime (1944), and never in peacetime.

Ultimately, I don’t think the economy of the 1920s or 30s can be compared with our current situation. Between the internet, globalization, and a 70% consumption-driven economy in the US, things have changed. But technology has made us more efficient and adaptable, not less. So if by curbing spending, reducing the federal deficit, cutting federal tax rates from about 77% to 25%, allowed the citizens and entrepreneurs of the US to get out of the depression of 1920 in a year and a half … perhaps, we could have done so in a similar time frame.

The $11 trillion that the federal government has committed to prop up the economy, has consequences. It isn’t just a matter of increasing GDP again, and lowering the unemployment rate. Financial institutions still have toxic debt on their balance sheets. They’re not healthy. The Federal Reserve has $2.1 trillion on their balance sheet in long-term US Treasurys, mortgage bundles, and debt holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The US economy will not be in the clear just by getting more people employed, although that would be great. Consequences of our economy’s current makeup, fiscal policy, and monetary policy could include: inflation (which would lower consumption, driving economy back into recession), increase in interest rates to pay off public debt (which could cause a vicious cycle and an insurmountable debt), an eventual and even greater drop in housing as we have artificially propped up prices (which would increase foreclosures, lowering housing values even more, and overall spending once a again), etc.

The thesis of the article is that if we purged the system, liquidated debt, built an economy upon production, not consumption, allowed prices to reset, and cut taxes and spending, we would be in a position to move forward in a healthy system. Yes, it would be ugly for a period of time. But how good do things look right now? If you peer beyond the limited metrics of GDP growth and unemployment, they look pretty awful.

Random Post

Leave Your Comments Below

Please Note: All comments are moderated