The new job data is out and it was so bad it caused a 300+ point drop in the Dow Jones. The market is now down over 10% since late April. Robert Reich is now saying what I thought would happen: we are headed into a double dip recession. Basically, only 431,000 jobs were created, but that itself is very deceiving.

As hard as I’ve tried to deflect all logic and believe that real estate values are done falling, I just can’t ignore the sledgehammer to my skull that is reason. I’ve gone to the well and reached for denial. I’ve dug deep into my soul for delusion. I’ve even, begrudgingly, pursued a special kind of ignorance. But alas, no can do. This is what I know (facts are just the worst sometimes):

As bad as all that sounds, it ignores the dire situation we are facing in a very familiar setting; the housing market. Contrary to popular wisdom, the ‘toxic assets’ have not been cleaned out. It is very likely we are heading for a second mortgage meltdown.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner discusses the burdens of his position, why he felt it was necessary to bailout the financial system and the paternal role taken by the federal government:

As the jobless recovery rhetoric continues by the federal government, many have braced for October unemployment figures in the double digits. The Department of Labor released the latest unemployment data today, confirming those double digit concerns. U.S. unemployment hit 10.2% in October, up from 9.8% in September, the highest since April 1983.

Real GDP has retreated 0.7% in the second quarter of 2009. The national unemployment rate ticked up to 9.8% in September, from 9.7% in August, the highest since 1983. The underemployment rate has climbed to 17%, the highest in 16 years of counting the metric. The dollar is down 10% to a basket of currencies off the March highs. Once again, during this tumultuous time, in an epic struggle to scrape by and preserve wealth, one question rings in our ears: how is the current economic climate affecting pretty girls? (1) (2)

Not so fast there slick. Up and down swings are extremely common, recession or not. Bear market rallies were actually quite common in the Great Depression.

Can anyone site one credible example where Keynesian economics and budget deficit spending effectively created economic growth?

But if the economy doesn’t turnaround in a meaningful way by the end of President Obama’s first term, what is the next move for central planners? Just when you think they’ve ran out of bullets, they pull out a golden gun. Could the next move be a nudge towards a cashless society? Whispers of such an about-face have turned into legitimate policy debates in Japan. The total shift to electronic money would be designed, and sold to the Japanese people, as a way to fight the deflationary spiral they’ve battled for a decade plus (coined “the lost decade”). Nothing scares the central bankers more than deflation. And nothing works better to push through policy than fear. Americans have learned all about fear mongering through both the Bush and Obama administrations.

Social costs are not being reduced by the bailout, they’re being dispersed: to the taxpayer, to everyone who earns or saves the U.S. dollar and to unborn generations of Americans.